The relative strength of Walker and other anti-abortion, election-denying GOP candidates – such as Blake Masters in Arizona and JD Vance in Ohio – over establishment Democrats is indicative of how deeply dissatisfied voters are with Democratic positions and policies. Moreover, Walker’s odds have improved by 14-points over the last month, per FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, despite salacious revelations that he fathered multiple illegitimate children and paid for past girlfriends’ abortions. What does Republicans’ almost certain election sweep mean for the future of President Biden’s agenda?įor instance, in Georgia, despite Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker’s extremist views on abortion, gay rights, pandemic, and evolution, he is still favored to unseat Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock. Voters have honed in on quality-of-life concerns vis-à-vis the high cost of living and rising crime – two issues that the GOP is widely more trusted to address – while Democrats’ social issues-oriented agenda has become increasingly less compelling. There has been a clear shift in the national issues agenda in the final stretch of the campaign that has benefited Republicans. The latter is particularly remarkable, as Democrats had a 71 percent chance of retaining their Senate majority just six weeks ago. If current trends hold, Republicans can expect to gain roughly 30 to 35 House seats, and to walk away with a two- three-seat majority in the Senate.įiveThirtyEight’s forecast model now gives the GOP an 85 percent chance of winning a majority in the House, as well as a 55 percent chance in the Senate. GOP candidates in key swing-state Senate races have also made gains in recent weeks, and now either lead their Democratic opponents or marginally trail. Individual surveys of likely voters – those who will ultimately turnout to vote – show an even stronger GOP advantage of four or five points, which suggests that Republicans could very-well outperform current expectations. Republicans lead by approximately three-points in the generic ballot, per RealClearPolitics’ average of recent polls. With just days until Election Day, the Republican Party appears well-positioned to win control of both chambers of Congress.
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